BY: HASSAN FARAZIAN
SUMMARY: As the entire world is waiting anxiously for the conclusion of a truly historical American Presidential election, it is also relevant, if not more pertinent to examine the state of American politics in its aftermath due to the consequential sequel which shall follow in cementing a definitively new era. The old classical playbook script that has been shedding a well overdue skin after a century which has not reflected an evolving socioeconomic and cultural American politics is out of the window. Thus, examining how the election results shall look in a few days and the catalysts propelling it forward to the future are important points of departure in its analysis.
Everyone is glued to all the news and election developments, but let’s remember that in a truly divisive and never seen before energized campaign even the polls and pollsters are divided. While all polls got it wrong during the 2016 presidential election, Trafalgar poll and its outlier maverick pollster Robert Cahaly got it right and to their credit, they have been right in a number of other insistences such as Florida’s election. This time around too and without qualm, Mr. Cahaly has continued to adamantly declare a Trump victory for 2020 even up to these remaining couple of days to the election. The rest of the pollsters though, continue to predict otherwise
Here is another perspective and analysis below – not a poll – that contrary to Mr. Cahaly findings respectfully predicts a historical landslide victory for the Democrats.
BLOOD BATH 2020
The starting point should be: Why did the polls were proven wrong and, therefore, what are the pitfalls, elements, and factors to be accounted for correctly this time to avoid the same mishaps? Then the general current state of the elections so much more different from the 2016 should be examined.
THE DEMOCRATIC MAYHEM Of 2016
“A leader in the Democratic Party is a boss,
in the Republican Party he is a leader.”
Harry S Truman
Briefly, the rear window mirror to the Democratic Party’s 2016 election demonstrated disastrous strategic, operational and a blatant failure to respect and honor a democratic process. There was an absolute denial and ignorance in the adamant rise of the Liberal wing of the party that had been brewing slowly but surely over the past decade. The Democratic base was clearly changing to a more progressive vision but had been served only with lip service and sugar-coating policies. The following are just a handful but crucial points for the reasons that resulted in the fiasco and failure of Democratic Party’s 2016 presidential election.
Senator Bernie Sanders: The astronomical rise of Senator Sanders right from the start interjecting his progressive policies with his younger supporters genuinely excited in a change both within the country and consequently the Party — was terribly misread — by the Democratic Party’s apparatchik such as Former DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Then, the downright rigging of the Party ahead of the elections, the WikiLeaks, Donna Bazile’s sharing of the debate questions with the then candidate Hillary Clinton was a nightmare that proved to be an enormous culprit to the detriment of Candidate Clinton. Thus the Democratic Party’s standing with the new and younger generation that represented a demographic change was scared beyond repair.
Consequently, the majority of Senator Sanders’ supporters along with many others either stayed home or cast their protest ballot for President Trump. The rest as it goes is history and The Party has been able to heal gradually and move forward with a better appreciation of its base and the new face of American demography which the Republican party is at a loss to acknowledge or complete resistance to enlarge its base for the Party’s future survivability.
THE REPUBLICAN WAKE UP CALL — 2020
FORCE EMPOWERS ITS OWN ADVERSERIES. IT RAISES UP ITS OWN OPPOPSITION. IT ENGENDERS ITS OWN DESTRUCTION.
President Trump and the Republican Party, particularly the senate Republicans who have played complete raw politics and rolled over in accommodating the White House has been the best Democratic ally of the 2020 elections in both the Presidential as well as the Senate race. They have energized the Democratic Party, the Independent voters and most importantly an incredibly vast number of — a silent and not so quiet –very disenchanted Republican base and status quo.
Thus, they have animated all of them in addition to a rising Tsunami of progressive force, particularly among the younger voters of Millennials and generation Z that do not relate to any of their out of date ideas and lost political orientation. The GOP’s only message has been announcing over and over like a broken record that Democrats and Liberals are going to ruin the country and steal the American dream. Yet, they have failed miserably, to say the least, in presenting any viable alternative. The Obamacare is a vivid and undeniable example that the GOP and the President personally have been grappling with only out of personal vindication rather than presenting an honest and pragmatic solution or intellectual debate.
Therefore, the Republican party at every level from the President down to the State have cornered themselves into a politically explosive place that has become a major liability. The American people are now hooked on the healthcare Act with the pre-existing clause. A revolution in this country but an amazement for all other Western Industrial countries who have had a health care coverage regardless of a Liberal, Labor or a Conservative government. It is an absolute political suicide to consider eliminating the current Health Care Act known as the Obamacare. In the pertinent observation of a true American hero and not a flag waving one General Dwight D. Eisenhower on social entitlements:
Should any political party attempt to abolish social security unemployment insurance and eliminate labor laws and farm programs you would not hear of that party again in our political history. There is a tiny splinter group of course that believes you can do these things. Among them are a few other Texas oil millionaires and an occasional politician or businessman from other areas. Their number is negligible, and they are stupid.
The President’s rhetoric about the liberal wing of the Democrats is also the same inflicting wound in trying to diminish their relevance in the current socioeconomic climate that the economy is already in the South and falling even further. When during the debates he referred to Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and her proposal in dismissing VP Joe Biden’s policy proposal to tackle the evident and growing climate change disasters facing the world stating:
“If you look at his plan, his environmental plan, you know who developed it?” Mr. Trump said. “A.O.C. plus three. They know nothing about the climate.”
In response to which Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez promptly tweeted:
“It’s actually AOC plus 115… because that’s how many House and Senate members have co-sponsored the most ambitious climate legislation in American history.”
Pointing clearly to the wave of political change on the horizon of American politics. Here are some of the reasons for the landslide victory of an epic magnitude around the corner.
First, AOC + 3 that includes Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Ayanna S. Pressley of Massachusetts, and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan was just a beginning of the change that was not paid attention to either by the Republicans or even the Democratic party. In July of this year another progressive candidate Jamaal Bowman defeated by 15 percentage point the longtime Rep. Eliot Engel in New York’s Democratic primary as the left wing of the party. Then in another confirmation that the rise of the progressive left wing is not just a passing social fad, Representative Omar defeated local lawyer Antone Melton-Meaux by almost 17 points despite the fact that her opponent was well funded by pro-Israel Jewish group that had out spent her by a margin of 2 to 1 in a very contentious race.
The point? there is a massive and genuine support for this movement that includes the very younger generation that has not been considered by the pollsters who believe in President Trump’s victory. The same group that shall reshape the make up of the House of Representatives and the U.S Senate. The President would have been well served had he been told that the AOC + 3 is in fact AOC + Millions who would show up and use their voting power.
Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time
Harry S. Truman
Second, The Lincoln Project has been extremely effective in swaying away a sizeable number of Republican votes from the Republican Party Candidates and of course President Trump. The Lincoln project has rightfully pointed out the flawed character of the President along with his policies to the detriment of the country and the Party. He is portrayed as an imposter and not a man with principles of a Conservative Republican and a vision to move the country forward. In that respect, they have been remarkably effective in persuading principled Republicans to cast their vote for VP Joe Biden’s candidacy. In other words the Trafalgar group, Robert Cahaly and others who have predicted President Trump’s victory have been unable to capture the true intentions of the sample voters, no matter how much they must have tried to persuade them upon the anonymity of their polls.
ELECTION 2020 THE AFTERMATH
The analysis in favor of VP Joe Biden has consistently been forwarded with the argument of pragmatic reasoning and a person that might be able to close the widening social injustice gap that has covered a wide range of moral, social and economic divide in the United States which is on the brink of losing the hold at the center affecting the sociopolitical cohesion. As a President, he can prove to play a major role in being the FDR of the moment. This logic in his favor were articulated both in June 2016 prior to the last election and last year when he was running for the Democratic nomination in July 2019. Here is the conclusion to both essays.
VP JOE BIDEN, THE WILD CARD SAVING THE DAY
Imagining a Trump win by some on both sides seems to be a nightmare scenario. As to the Democratic side, there are the disconnected Party authorities – and that is what they really are – who hope and talk of a reconciliation at the convention with Hillary embracing the Liberal Agenda by nominating a true, untarnished and honest progressive VP like – Elizabeth Warren. For the sake of argument let’s picture that in the White House scenario (you need a good Frame) and you can’t help but think of Ménage à trios – Threesomes for the politically perverts. Hillary Clinton, her unfortunate honest Liberal VP whoever that maybe and yes Bill Clinton. It would be difficult if not impossible and unclear to see who and/or how important decisions will be taken. But we know how it is going to play out. The media would have a ball at it since we have seen this movie before, and it is sure to be a disaster as – eggs are eggs — with Bill being the Fox in the Chicken coop. This is not meant to be an uncompassionate statement, only a cruel reality. Seriously, is it even imaginable or much less desirable to go through another scandal like this — one more time — while the country is hurting so bad in all fronts and more importantly with people being up in arms already with all the privileged unaccountability and irresponsibility?
The Wild Card: Democrats and for that matter, Republicans only hope in that case would be VP Joe Biden. He has all the qualifications and can be the only real reconciliation force not only within his own party but the country as a whole, and the Republicans would also certainly breathe a sigh of relief – albeit in secret. This may be a long shot to many people, experts, and the Washington insiders. But the evidence so far has proven this election cycle to have been only that – a long shot, misread by everyone and especially those who should know better – yet have so far manifested complete ignorance and incompetence in analyzing the changing and disgusted social forces. The recent Maryland’s 141st Preakness horse race was supposed to be won by Nyquist on his way to Triple Crown but was beaten by the unexpected – Exaggerator — proving that it wasn’t an exaggerated proposition. VP Joe Biden’s candidacy and eventual Presidency shouldn’t be considered an over the top plausibility. If it needs to be reiterated, so far, in this election cycle, everything has been turned – upside down. Again, just watch and see how anything unexpected can change the results. After all, it is the Year of the Monkey and if VP Joe Biden doesn’t throw his hat in the ring to prove it, then Trump would have at least one good thing to say about China. So, just relax, get your popcorn and enjoy the ending by hoping for a good finish to a seemingly nightmarish thriller. At least you won’t be bored.
Finally, in the current tremulous international relations that by all accounts this administration has projected an antagonistic posture towards both the allies and adversaries, the experienced Joe Biden’s foreign policy image will be a reassuring advantage by the disenchanted voters. In short, he is the man of the situation to heal both a badly broken domestic American politics and a hubristic ever more irrelevant and discredited foreign policy. Ultimately, Joe Biden with his wise, likable grandfather or a favorite uncle image is the only candidate that can throw an “Uncle Charlie” pitch to a President Trump that is close to striking out politically with the American people.
Hence, continued attack by Kamala Harris or others at this stage would – Not – advance any future Democratic candidate’s cause if they continue to question VP Joe Biden’s credibility. The millennial supporters of Bernie Sanders didn’t forgive or pardoned Hillary’s political machinery manipulation of the Democratic party, it is certain that Joe Biden’s older white supporters will also react adversely at the 2020 election to any other possible contender who would throw their favorite Joe under the bus.
As it stands now, President Trump’s Huffing and Puffing has lost serious momentum and badly needed concrete support going forward. The National Rifle Association ( NRA) is in a shamble, the Chamber of Commerce has turned its back on his reelection, and the well-oiled Koch brother’s notorious political network is out of the picture since President Trump in his usual self-inflicting wound announced that, “…I don’t want their money or bad ideas” a few months ago. Further, by all accounts, the economy is cooling down and his foreign antagonistic Trade policies with China as well as America’s European partners do not help the cause of a “Great America First” economy. Added to this is the continuing ballooning of the budget deficit – with no end in sight.
There is no doubt that the abandonment of the Republican Party by Justin Amash is only the tip of a very disenchanted Party whose members have started to see the writing on the Wall for the upcoming presidential election. Thus, the question is whether the Democratic Party will have the right pitcher to play ball in the aftermath of probably another controversial and certainly bloody election. With sentiments running high and bloody wounds dominating the aftermath of the 2020 elections, only Joe Biden can step up to the plate in appeasing a Far Left Democratic Party and a bruised Republican Party that would still need a helping hand from across the aisle to begin a precariously needed healing process both for the good of a working government and ultimately the country as a whole that seems to have been forgotten so far by them– except with a high dose of lip service.
CONCLUSION
How the playbook of the next four years will unfold in the current tumultuous times will obviously depend on many known domestic and international factors. However, as it relates to tomorrow’s elections a landslide victory and even the turning of Texas the stronghold of the Republican party should be the last straw for the many dead woods in the Party who will leave a legacy of disgrace. Further a chaotic finger pointing as well as infighting for the control of its leadership in a Post Trump era will surely necessitate a serious soul searching if the Republican Party is to change course in reflecting the current American society by allowing more diversity inside the tent that they have been arrogantly negligent in allowing the President bring down.
[1] Ray Peterson, “The Dilemma of Force,” Saturday Review (February 10,1986)
