By: HASSAN FARAZIAN
SUMMARY: As the chaos in the last stretch for both Parties’ official nomination process continues, the eventual ramifications for domestic and American foreign policy, intertwined in a complex web of elements, simplified by all candidates — have not been fully and /or maturely addressed or grasped. Probably, this can be attributed to the euphoria and seemingly all around surprises of the campaign that have been unprecedented and taken all the pundits off guard. Therefore, no serious thought or debate has been articulated – yet – now that both parties are approaching the finishing line of the primaries; let alone the decisive aftermath of the Presidential election.
Hence, it is pertinent to examine the next few weeks of the primaries’ marathon and its possible ending scenario/effects. There will certainly be more permanent and serious weighing upshot scar for both Parties – along with the undeniable impact and thus consequences of an already changing American landscape on the horizon. In fact, the next and last phase of these primaries are most crucial before the candidates of both parties lock in their horns for a major showdown of the November 4th election.
The presumptive Donald Trump candidacy, despite the theatrical denials of few irrelevant establishment figures that are really a – passé ghost – of an extraneous Republican clan at the margins of today’s mainstream American politics and certainly – public sentiment — is finally an accepted reality. The only unsettled question for the Republicans is the official crowning of his candidacy through a viable VP pick that can bridge the gap amongst rank and file as well as more importantly, enhancing his chances of winning the general election. The healing process has already begun and the proof in the pudding is with Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Senator John McCain of Arizona who had vehemently and in strong language opposed Trump, being the latest establishment Republicans supporting Trump in another sign of reconciliation.
On the Democrats side, things are not so clear, despite Hillary Clinton’s declaration on CNN’s Chris Cuomo that: “I will be the nominee for my party”, adding, “That is already done, in effect. There is no way that I won’t be.” Not so fast. In fact, even if she officially reaches the finishing line, it would be wise not only for her – but also the Democratic Party’s big wigs to consider seriously the following plausible scenarios — between now, the election and in the eventuality of her win – the sober realities that would sink in after the elections.
First, there is the still unrevealing as well as worsening FBI investigation that can be “The Party Spoiler” and with all the evidence and reading in between the lines all pointing to a most likely verdict of recommendation by the Agency for her indictment. That would certainly be the Game changer and in a sense a blessing in disguise for the Party and Bernie Sanders for the following reasons.
All polls seem to indicate a closing of the gap between Hillary and Trump; with Trump probably leading and winning in the end. He is as savvy as he is proven to be and would, therefore, refine and project himself very Presidential, being able to repair all the self-inflicted damages – as proven by the mending of the fences with his party’s establishment. Translation: Bernie would be the candidate that can ignite — both parties’ disenchanted members – along with the independents – which all analysts seem to have forgotten.
The Republicans are clearly on their way to a general accord and will put up an – spectacular show – that will radiate an image of renewed hope, competence and an indispensable alternative that everyone is so desperately seeking during these dire times. If in doubt, patience, just watch and see the show and glitter at the GOP convention. Therefore, only Bernie’s nomination on the Democratic side can counter that with his — intellectual and announced agenda. Not Hillary Clinton.
Second, if it is not an understatement, Hillary comes in with many personal and political pieces of baggage, other than the ongoing e-mail scandal, which is labeled – as: Bill Clinton, Clinton Foundation, many foreign policy blunders such as Iraq, Libya, Syria etc… and last but – certainly not the least, her undeniable link to America Cooperate world that has – definitely and definitively tarnished the “Clinton Brand” with total absence of any integrity forever; and in the words of Governor Jerry Brown of California during Bill Clinton’s first campaign as – being sleazy. Donald Trump would have a ball in highlighting all these with the lucidity of mind and sharp ruthless attacks which he has demonstrated.
Finally, the Democratic Party is in deep disarray that has been downplayed — way too much – by either the pundits or the Party Authorities (which is what they have proved to be on both sides — rather than leaders) that have both been behind the curve – all along. Bernie Sanders has been a Gentleman in trying to honestly and without rhetoric addressing the issues. But, his followers, especially the younger generation that have flocked to his side have no more patience for the rigged system which Trump has rightfully declared. The most likely Sander’s win in California will give his supporters, even more lift and credence in opposing Clinton and her agenda. Amazingly, the disconnected Washington and National political machinery are still refusing steadfastly to understand and accept the fact that it is precisely for their longstanding broken and corrupted system that people and particularly the young are revolted and revolting. In their facile mind, the Party organizer probably believe that they can – still – Fool ALL the people ALL of the time.
Translation: If Party chiefs haven’t woken up to this harsh, sobering reality, even after the recent Nevada convention incident, then the 1968 riots should be an event to be recalled by the old timers. However, this time it would probably be inside the convention center becoming an ugly showcase for the entire country to have another reason to be deterred from Hillary Clinton’s candidacy. The Democratic National Convention at the end of July 2016 — exactly a week after the Republican Energized convention (Again just watch and see) would be a complete damping off and climax to a lost election in advance of November ballot. Furthermore, a great number of Sander’s supporters estimated to be between at least 20 to 30 percent, would either refrain from going to the ballot for Hillary or will vote for – Trump. President Lyndon B. Johnson once remarking about the FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover is reported to have said that:” It’s probably better to have him inside the tent pissing out than outside pissing in.” As things are right now, a Clinton nomination can not in any way what so ever appease Sander’s supporters from, to rephrase LBJ’s quote “ pissing” all over the place and during the actual election, if she is nominated.
Imagining a Trump win by some on both sides seems to be a nightmare scenario. As to the Democratic side, there are the disconnected Party authorities – and that is what they really are – who hope and talk of a reconciliation at the convention with Hillary embracing the Liberal Agenda by nominating a true, untarnished and honest progressive VP like – Elizabeth Warren. For the sake of argument let’s picture that in the White House scenario( you need a good Frame) and you can’t help but think of Ménage à trios – Threesomes for the politically perverts. Hillary Clinton, her unfortunate honest Liberal VP whoever that maybe and yes Bill Clinton. It would be difficult if not impossible and unclear to see who and/or how important decisions will be taken. But we know how it is going to play out. The media would have a ball at it since we have seen this movie before and it is sure to be a disaster as – eggs are eggs — with Bill being the Fox in the Chicken coop. This is not meant to be an uncompassionate statement, only a cruel reality. Seriously, is it even imaginable or much less desirable to go through another scandal like this — one more time — while the country is hurting so bad in all fronts and more importantly with people being up in arms already with all the privileged unaccountability and irresponsibility?
The Wild Card: Democrats and for that matter, Republicans only hope in that case would be VP Joe Biden. He has all the qualifications and can be the only real reconciliation force not only within his own party but the country as a whole, and the Republicans would also certainly breathe a sigh of relief – albeit in secret. This may be a long shot to many people, experts, and the Washington insiders. But the evidence so far has proven this election cycle to have been only that – a long shot, misread by everyone and especially those who should know better – yet have so far manifested complete ignorance and incompetence in analyzing the changing and disgusted social forces. The recent Maryland’s 141st Preakness horse race was supposed to be won by Nyquist on his way to Triple Crown but was beaten by the unexpected – Exaggerator — proving that it wasn’t an exaggerated proposition. VP Joe Biden’s candidacy and eventual Presidency shouldn’t be considered an over the top plausibility. If it needs to be reiterated, so far, in this election cycle, everything has been turned – upside down. Again, just watch and see how anything unexpected can change the results. After all, it is the Year of the Monkey and if VP Joe Biden doesn’t throw his hat in the ring to prove it, then Trump would have at least one good thing to say about China. So, just relax, get your popcorn and enjoy the ending by hoping for a good finish to a seemingly nightmarish thriller. At least you won’t be bored.
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